Cable con comentarios sobre Sócrates y Cavaco Silva
"El primer ministro Jose Sócrates es un líder carismático", considera la Embajada en Lisboa. "El presidente Aníbal Cavaco Silva es el político más popular [...] y se esfuerza por ser un jefe de Estado ecuánime".
ID:227028
Date:2009-09-25 14:33:00
Origin:09LISBON514 Source:Embassy Lisbon Classification:CONFIDENTIAL//NOFORN
Dunno:
Destination:VZCZCXRO4617
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NOFORN
SIPDIS
FOR DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOYER FROM CDA DAVID BALLARD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2019
TAGS: OTRA, PREL, PGOV, ECON, MARR, PO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR OCTOBER 6-7 VISIT TO PORTUGAL
Classified By: CDA David Ballard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (SBU) Your visit to Lisbon comes on the heels of the most closely contested parliamentary election in many years. With the September 27 parliamentary elections just days away, the Socialists led by Prime Minister Jose Socrates have a ten-point lead over the Social Democrats led by former Finance Minister Manuela Ferreira Leite. However, a significant portion of the electorate -- approximately 24 percent of those intending to vote -- remains undecided and could sway the final result. Both leading parties support our bilateral relationship, and we expect Portugal to remain a close EU and NATO partner.
PORTUGAL - STEADFAST ALLY
-------------------------
2. (SBU) Portugal, a founding member of NATO, is a steadfast ally that has consistently stood by our side over the years despite changes in government. President Cavaco Silva and
Prime Minister Socrates (at this date) -- from opposing political parties -- both regularly stress that the transatlantic relationship is a pillar of Portuguese foreign policy and that NATO is the primary guarantor of European security. Portugal is also a member of the Proliferation
Security Initiative, the Container Security Initiative/Megaports, and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism.
3. (C) Portugal has taken a leading role supporting U.S. efforts to close the detention center at Guantanamo. Foreign Ministry Luis Amado was the first to publicly call on the EU
to help resettle detainees, and on August 28 Portugal received two detainees for resettlement. The GOP has indicated some willingness to accept a third detainee but the
issue is still being reviewed.
INTERNATIONAL MILITARY ENGAGEMENT
---------------------------------
4. (SBU) The Portuguese government provides liberal access to Portuguese air and seaports for U.S. military operations in support of our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. This year
2,557 U.S. military aircraft have flown over Portuguese-controlled airspace and 1,103 have transited through Lajes Air Base in the Azores.
5. (SBU) The Portuguese military is engaged internationally on numerous fronts. Portugal participates in NATO's efforts in Kosovo (296) and Afghanistan (143 in place, with a
commitment to double its contingent), as well as the UN mission in Lebanon (147). Portugal participates in the EUFOR mission in Bosnia (14), provides 87 personnel to support bilateral cooperation in five Lusophone African nations and Congo (EUSEC), and has 164 military and national guard personnel policing in Timor Leste.
INTERNAL POLITICS - GOVERNING FROM THE CENTER
---------------------------------------------
6. (SBU) Portugal's charismatic Prime Minister Jose Socrates heads Portugal's moderate Socialist government, which assumed power in March 2005. The Socialists won an absolute majority in parliament for the first time in the party's history, which has allowed Socrates to govern from the center without coalitions and helped him implement an economic reform agenda. By the end of 2007 the government had succeeded in
reducing the budget deficit below the EU-mandated limit of three percent, a year ahead of schedule. Since the onset of the global financial crisis, however, the budget deficit and
unemployment rate have again increased and are projected at 6 percent and over 10 percent respectively by yearend.
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 000514
NOFORN
SIPDIS
FOR DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY BOYER FROM CDA DAVID BALLARD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2019
TAGS: OTRA, PREL, PGOV, ECON, MARR, PO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR OCTOBER 6-7 VISIT TO PORTUGAL
Classified By: CDA David Ballard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
1. (SBU) Your visit to Lisbon comes on the heels of the most closely contested parliamentary election in many years. With the September 27 parliamentary elections just days away, the Socialists led by Prime Minister Jose Socrates have a ten-point lead over the Social Democrats led by former Finance Minister Manuela Ferreira Leite. However, a significant portion of the electorate -- approximately 24 percent of those intending to vote -- remains undecided and could sway the final result. Both leading parties support our bilateral relationship, and we expect Portugal to remain a close EU and NATO partner.
PORTUGAL - STEADFAST ALLY
-------------------------
2. (SBU) Portugal, a founding member of NATO, is a steadfast ally that has consistently stood by our side over the years despite changes in government. President Cavaco Silva and
Prime Minister Socrates (at this date) -- from opposing political parties -- both regularly stress that the transatlantic relationship is a pillar of Portuguese foreign policy and that NATO is the primary guarantor of European security. Portugal is also a member of the Proliferation
Security Initiative, the Container Security Initiative/Megaports, and the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism.
3. (C) Portugal has taken a leading role supporting U.S. efforts to close the detention center at Guantanamo. Foreign Ministry Luis Amado was the first to publicly call on the EU
to help resettle detainees, and on August 28 Portugal received two detainees for resettlement. The GOP has indicated some willingness to accept a third detainee but the
issue is still being reviewed.
INTERNATIONAL MILITARY ENGAGEMENT
---------------------------------
4. (SBU) The Portuguese government provides liberal access to Portuguese air and seaports for U.S. military operations in support of our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. This year
2,557 U.S. military aircraft have flown over Portuguese-controlled airspace and 1,103 have transited through Lajes Air Base in the Azores.
5. (SBU) The Portuguese military is engaged internationally on numerous fronts. Portugal participates in NATO's efforts in Kosovo (296) and Afghanistan (143 in place, with a
commitment to double its contingent), as well as the UN mission in Lebanon (147). Portugal participates in the EUFOR mission in Bosnia (14), provides 87 personnel to support bilateral cooperation in five Lusophone African nations and Congo (EUSEC), and has 164 military and national guard personnel policing in Timor Leste.
INTERNAL POLITICS - GOVERNING FROM THE CENTER
---------------------------------------------
6. (SBU) Portugal's charismatic Prime Minister Jose Socrates heads Portugal's moderate Socialist government, which assumed power in March 2005. The Socialists won an absolute majority in parliament for the first time in the party's history, which has allowed Socrates to govern from the center without coalitions and helped him implement an economic reform agenda. By the end of 2007 the government had succeeded in
reducing the budget deficit below the EU-mandated limit of three percent, a year ahead of schedule. Since the onset of the global financial crisis, however, the budget deficit and
unemployment rate have again increased and are projected at 6 percent and over 10 percent respectively by yearend.
7. (SBU) Portugal has national parliamentary elections and local elections for municipal officials, on September 27 and October 11, respectively. Despite the economic situation and an ongoing corruption investigation, the Socialists are leading in the polls by a three-point margin over the center-right Social Democratic opposition led by former Finance and Education Minister Manuela Ferreira Leite. Possible post-electoral scenarios include a Social Democrat or Socialist minority government or a coalition government comprised of one of the major parties and one or two of the smaller parties. The new government, egardless of the party in power, will likely face difficulties in passing measures through parliament, which may force negotiations on the left and right. However, GOP cooperation with the U.S. and support for the EU and NATO will likely continue unchanged.
MULTILATERALIST TO THE CORE
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---------------------------
8. (SBU) Portugal places great emphasis on multilateral institutions, the European Union foremost among them. Portugal joined the EU in 1986, and a subsequent infusion of EU funds made possible the construction of Portugal's national transportation infrastructure. Portugal remains a net recipient of EU funds, and a large majority of the public views the EU favorably. In fact, Social Democrat Manuel Durao Barroso abandoned his prime ministership halfway through his term in 2004 in order to assume the presidency of
the European Commission (EC). On September 16 Barroso was re-elected president of the EC. On most important foreign policy issues, Portugal defers to EU consensus. There are
some exceptions, such as issues concerning lusophone Africa, on which Portugal seeks a leadership role.
FOREIGN MINISTER AMADO
----------------------
9. (C) Foreign Minister Luis Amado has been a great friend of the U.S., both in his previous capacity as Minister of Defense and now as Foreign Minister. He is even-tempered, thoughtful, and low-key, and regularly seeks opportunities to coordinate policy with the U.S. He places great importance on presenting a united public front, whether within the EU, NATO or with the U.S. If there are differences, he prefers to discuss them discreetly. He met with Secretary Clinton in Washington on June 5. He is likely to step down after the September elections.
PRIME MINISTER SOCRATES
-----------------------
10. (C) PM Jose Socrates is a charismatic leader who worked hard to improve his English in advance of Portugal's 2007 EU presidency. He relies on advice from a small circle of
advisors and is a moderate Socialist who has been successful at co-opting or marginalizing the extremists in his party. He also aggressively pursued his domestic agenda before assuming the EU presidency, achieving difficult labor, educational, and social security reforms. Socrates spends most of his time on the domestic agenda, leaving foreign
policy largely in the hands of FM Amado. Economic diplomacy has been a cornerstone of Socrates' foreign policy and this government has strengthened ties with Angola, Libya,
Venezuela, Russia, and China to expand Portugal's energy sources and export markets.
PRESIDENT CAVACO SILVA
----------------------
11. (C) Anibal Cavaco Silva is the most popular politician in Portugal, although in recent weeks a front-page wiretapping scandal and his refusal to clarify the issue have threatened
his popularity. The Portuguese presidency does not wield the executive power of the U.S. presidency, but the position is not ceremonial. Cavaco Silva is commander in chief of the
armed forces and must approve military deployments. He also chairs the Council of State, which handles all constitutional issues. Cavaco Silva hails from the right-of-center Social
Democratic party and he often butts heads with Socialist PM Socrates. But Cavaco Silva generally strives to be a non-partisan Head of State, and leaves day-to-day politicking
to his party leaders in parliament.
For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal, please see our Intelink site:
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:portugal
BALLARD
Cable sobre las relaciones entre el banco portugués Millennium e Irán
El embajador en Lisboa informa de que el banco portugués Millennium a cambio de hacer negocio en Irán se propone a EEUU para rastrear cuentas y activos iraníes
12/12/2010
NOFORN
SIPDIS
TREASURY FOR OFAC
DEPT FOR IO/PSC AND EEB/ESC
DEPT ALSO FOR NEA/IR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2020
TAGS: PINR, ECON, EFIN, EUN, PGOV, PREL, IR, PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL: ACTION REQUEST FOR GUIDANCE ON PROPOSAL
TO ESTABLISH BANKING RELATIONSHIP WITH IRAN
REF: A. LISBON 52
B. 09 LISBON 146
Classified By: XXXXXXXXXXXX for reasons 1.4(b,d).
1. (U) This is an action request. See para 12.
2. (C/NF) Summary: In April 2009, officials of Millennium BCP, Portugal's leading private bank, visited Iran at the invitation of the Iranian Embassy in Lisbon and met with the
Central Bank and other entities in the financial sector to discuss Iran's interest in stablishing a business relationship with Millennium. On February 5, Millennium Executive Board Chairman Carlos Santos Ferreira discussed the proposal with Poleconoff and its possible benefit to the USG. While he claimed that the costs could outweigh the benefits to Millennium, Ferreira is willing to establish a relationship with Iran to help the USG track Iranian assets and financial activities. Millennium has consulted with the Bank of Portugal and senior government officials, and would like our views on its proposed relationship with Iran and Washington's interest in tracking Iranian accounts in Portugal. We request ashington guidance; our recommendation is that Millennium not pursue the relationship. However, given that Ferreira may do so regardless of USG recommendations, it might be prudent to maintain open channels of communication with Ferreira. Post will track developments and discourage deeper relations with Iran. (See para 12.) End Summary.
3. (C/NF) On February 5, Poleconoff met with Carlos Santos Ferreira, Chairman of the Executive Board of Millennium BCP (formerly the Portuguese Commercial Bank), at the request of Ferreira's advisor who is a longtime contact of the Embassy. Ferreira discussed a proposal by the Iranian banking sector to establish a relationship with Millennium to further trade and commercial opportunities. He noted that Iran has other options in Europe but may be interested in Portugal for its less restrictive regulatory environment. (Iran already has
relations with various European banks, including HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Danske, and Banque Commercial de Placement.) Ferreira insisted that while the costs of the Iranian
proposal could outweigh the benefits to Millennium, the bank would be open to stablishing a relationship with Iran in order to help the USG track the financial activities of the Iranian government.
SIPDIS
TREASURY FOR OFAC
DEPT FOR IO/PSC AND EEB/ESC
DEPT ALSO FOR NEA/IR
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2020
TAGS: PINR, ECON, EFIN, EUN, PGOV, PREL, IR, PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL: ACTION REQUEST FOR GUIDANCE ON PROPOSAL
TO ESTABLISH BANKING RELATIONSHIP WITH IRAN
REF: A. LISBON 52
B. 09 LISBON 146
Classified By: XXXXXXXXXXXX for reasons 1.4(b,d).
1. (U) This is an action request. See para 12.
2. (C/NF) Summary: In April 2009, officials of Millennium BCP, Portugal's leading private bank, visited Iran at the invitation of the Iranian Embassy in Lisbon and met with the
Central Bank and other entities in the financial sector to discuss Iran's interest in stablishing a business relationship with Millennium. On February 5, Millennium Executive Board Chairman Carlos Santos Ferreira discussed the proposal with Poleconoff and its possible benefit to the USG. While he claimed that the costs could outweigh the benefits to Millennium, Ferreira is willing to establish a relationship with Iran to help the USG track Iranian assets and financial activities. Millennium has consulted with the Bank of Portugal and senior government officials, and would like our views on its proposed relationship with Iran and Washington's interest in tracking Iranian accounts in Portugal. We request ashington guidance; our recommendation is that Millennium not pursue the relationship. However, given that Ferreira may do so regardless of USG recommendations, it might be prudent to maintain open channels of communication with Ferreira. Post will track developments and discourage deeper relations with Iran. (See para 12.) End Summary.
3. (C/NF) On February 5, Poleconoff met with Carlos Santos Ferreira, Chairman of the Executive Board of Millennium BCP (formerly the Portuguese Commercial Bank), at the request of Ferreira's advisor who is a longtime contact of the Embassy. Ferreira discussed a proposal by the Iranian banking sector to establish a relationship with Millennium to further trade and commercial opportunities. He noted that Iran has other options in Europe but may be interested in Portugal for its less restrictive regulatory environment. (Iran already has
relations with various European banks, including HSBC, Deutsche Bank, Danske, and Banque Commercial de Placement.) Ferreira insisted that while the costs of the Iranian
proposal could outweigh the benefits to Millennium, the bank would be open to stablishing a relationship with Iran in order to help the USG track the financial activities of the Iranian government.
4. (C/NF) Early last year, the Iranian Embassy in Lisbon contacted Ferreira, who had previous contact with that embassy while serving as Chairman of the Board of Directors
of Oeiras Foundation (1987-1989), a state entity that he says sold munitions to Iran more than 20 years ago. Millennium Bank advised Prime Minister Socrates and senior government officials, including the governor of the Bank of Portugal (Portugal's central bank), of Iran's interest in establishing a relationship with Millennium and having Millennium officials visit Iran for meetings.
5. (C/NF) In April 2009, a few weeks after Portuguese MFA Political Director Nuno Brito was in Tehran (Ref B), two Millennium officials -- Jose Joao Guilherme, member of the
Executive Board of Directors who is responsible for the bank's international portfolio, and Duarte Pitta Ferraz, Head of the International Affairs Unit -- visited Iran for five
days at the invitation of the Iranian Embassy in Lisbon. They met with senior representatives of the Central Bank, seven banks (including three private banks), the Organization for Investment, Economic, and Technical Assistance of Iran (OIETAI), and the Portuguese Embassy to discuss EU restrictions on Iran and potential business opportunities within those constraints. The banks expressed interest in establishing relations with Millennium in the traditional areas of trade and finance.
6. (C/NF) Based on the meetings and information provided by officials of the Iranian Central Bank and the Iranian Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, Millennium selected four priority banks for further consideration: the Export Development Bank of Iran (EDBI), Bank Tejarat, Bank Parsian, and EN Bank, which have SWIFT codes. The EU is currently restricted by UN sanctions from doing business with Melli Iran Bank and Saderat Iran Bank. According to Millennium officials, no other Iranian bank is subject to UN sanctions.
LISBON 00000066 002 OF 003
In 2008 Iranian deposits in European banks totaled USD 46.7 billion, while foreign deposits in Iran decreased by USD 2.5 billion. France maintained a significant account, with USD 5.4 billion in Iranian banks. Iranian exports totaled USD
106 billion (80 percent from oil), while imports totaled U=H.QAfrica, and the Middle East.
According to the report, EDBI told Millennium officials that Brazil is not overly concerned about respecting international sanctions since "independent countries can make independent
decisions." (PROTECT)
8. (C/NF) Portugal has very few Iranian residents and very little trade with Iran. Portugal's trade with Iran totals less than 40 million euros per year, while Iranian oil represents about 9 percent of Portugal's oil imports. In January 2010, Brito told Under Secretary of State Burns that Portugal had no intention of furthering its economic relationship with Iran at this time. However, Portugal is keeping its options open for future investments (Ref A).
9. (C/NF) Millennium anticipates engaging in the following activities, which Ferreira insists are in compliance with EU banking laws and regulations and UN sanctions, if it were to agree to establish a relationsh/MQQ7#^QQQare not currently on any sanctions list and in accordance with the condition above; (3) undertake transactions on behalf of Iranian credit institutions with additional monitoring and oversight mechanisms to prevent
money laundering and terrorism finance; and (4) continue to conduct, on a case-by-case basis, operations of support to client companies that export to Iran.
10. (U) Millennium BCP is Portugal's leading private financial group and among the top 100 in the world, with listings on more than 40 national and international stock markets. It ranks second in Portugal in terms of market share, credit, and client assets. (As of December 2008, it had 2.6 million clients and an estimated 22 percent market share.) Founded in 1985 as the Portuguese Commercial Bank, it now boasts the largest presence in Portugal with 918 branches nationwide. It also has branches in the U.S., Europe and Africa, including Poland, Greece, Mozambique, Angola, Romania, Switzerland, and Turkey. The Embassy has been a Millennium client since 1997. Despite the financial crisis and the weak Portuguese economy, the bank reported a 201 million euro profit in 2008. On February 10, it reported a 12-percent increase in net profit in 2009, with 225 million euros, helped by the sale of a nearly 50 percent stake in its Angolan subsidiary. The GOP's state-run Caixa Geral de Depositos has a small stake (2.5 percent as of June 2009) in Millennium. A suspended member of the Millennium Executive Board of Directors is under investigation, along with other Portuguese political and business figures, for allegations of corruption and influence peddling in a private business deal, which does not involve the bank.
11. (U) Carlos Ferreira, Chairman of the Executive Board of Directors of Millennium since January 2008, has extensive experience in the banking industry. Previously, he served as
Chairman of the Board of Caixa Geral de Depositos, Chairman of Caixa - Banco de Investimento, Chairman of Caixa Seguros, and Member of the Board of the Steering and Strategy Committee of Foment Invest, among other positions. He also served as Member of Parliament for the Socialist Party and Vice Chairman of the Parliamentary Committee on Security and Health (1976-1977), member of the management board of state-owned Airports and Aerial Navigation (ANA), member of the Tax Reform Commission, and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Macau Airport Company. Born in Lisbon in
1949, Ferreira earned a law degree in 1971 from the Faculty of Law of Classical University of Lisbon and subsequently taught at his alma mater, as well as at the Faculty of Law at
Portugal's Catholic University and the Faculty of Economics
LISBON 00000066 003 OF 003
at the New University of Lisbon (1977-1988). He is a close contact of the Embassy and an influential member of the Portuguese banking sector. His son will soon be moving to
New York to work for Deloitte Touche.
12. (C/NF) POST RECOMMENDATION/GUIDANCE REQUEST: Ferreira told us he would be willing to allow the USG to monitor the Iranian accounts in Millennium in a manner to be mutually agreed upon, and he seeks our views on such an arrangement.
Post recommendation is that our basic response to Ferreira be that Millennium not pursue any relationship with any Iranian entities. However, it is quite possible that Millennium will
pursue the relationship regardless of USG recommendations. Therefore, post recommends that we maintain open channels of communication with Ferreira in order to maintain some
visibility on the Iranian accounts should Millennium go ahead and set them up. Post requests Washington guidance in responding to Ferreira's proposal, as well as views on
Millennium's proposed relationship with Iran. While Ferreira did not explicitly say so, post believes that the Portuguese MFA is, at a minimum, aware of his approach to the Embassy.
Ferreira is open to further communication with post should Washington need more information. Embassy ORA has cleared this cable.
For more reporting from Embassy Lisbon and information about Portugal, please see our Intelink site:
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/portal:port ugal
BALLARD
Clique aqui para ver o telegrama com comentários a José Sócrates e Cavaco Silva.
Clique aqui para ver o telegrama que fala das relações entre Portugal e a Venezuela.
Clique aqui para ver o telegrama sobre Cavaco Silva.
Clique aqui para ver o telegrama que fala do PSD (Manuela Ferreira Leite e Santana Lopes).
Clique aqui para ver o telegrama sobre Cavaco Silva.
Clique aqui para ver o telegrama que fala do PSD (Manuela Ferreira Leite e Santana Lopes).
Clique aqui para ver o telegrama sobre o panorama político português.
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